2027 POLLS: HOW NIGERIANS MAY VOTE

• Voter Anger, Regional Turnout, and an Information War Will Decide the Race, SBM Survey Shows

Our Staff Reporter

Nine months into 2026, Nigeria feels like a country holding its breath. In June, the United Nations warned that 35 million people could face acute hunger before August.

Federal workers rejected a proposed ₦100,000 minimum wage and threatened a nationwide strike. Schoolchildren were abducted in the Southwest.

And in the political space, the opposition coalition that once promised to unite against President Bola Tinubu fell apart after Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso walked out of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to form the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

It is against that backdrop that SBM Intelligence, a West African market and security intelligence firm that provides small and medium-sized business technology and security solutions, went into markets, viewing centres, schools and hotels across eight states in May to ask 829 Nigerians a simple question: how do you feel about 2027? The answer, in the first wave of SBM’s Voter Sentiment Tracker, is blunt. (https://www.sbmintel.com/2026/06/the-sbm-voter-sentiment-tracker-how-nigeria-may-vote/#gsc.tab)

Nearly 8 in 10 Nigerians say the country is headed in the wrong direction. And the candidate who benefits most from that mood is not the incumbent.

Peter Obi enters the 2027 race with a net favourability of +58.3 nationally, the only candidate in positive territory. President Tinubu sits at -58.5, the worst score in the survey. Kwankwaso follows at -21.6, Atiku at -31.8, Amaechi at -46.7.

On policy, the numbers are just as stark. Respondents rated Tinubu’s handling of inflation, tax, security, jobs and power on a scale of 1 to 4. His average never crossed 2.1. The Southeast gave him 1.14.

Even in the Northwest, his strongest zone, he managed only 2.02, still below the midpoint. The mood translates into vote intention. Nationally, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) leads the All Progressives Congress (APC) 57.4 percent to 11.3 percent, with 11percent undecided. But SBM warns that the headline number hides a critical truth: turnout will decide everything.

In a low-turnout scenario, NDC support collapses to 31.7 percent. In a high-turnout scenario, it jumps to 64.9 percent. That 33-point swing makes mobilization, not persuasion, the central battle of 2027. And mobilization is already uneven.

The Southeast, South-South and North-Central show the strongest determination to vote. High-turnout intention is 87.4 percent in the Southeast, 82.9 percent in the South-South, and 82.4 percent in the Northwest. The South-South also leads in new Permanent Voter Card registrations since 2023, with 49 percent of respondents saying they registered after the last election.

In the Southeast, turnout intent is high at 87 percent but driven by an already registered base; only 33 percent are new registrants. The zones with the weakest engagement are the ones that could decide the margin.

The Southwest has just 44 percent high-turnout intention, the lowest of any zone, and the largest undecided share at 23 percent. It is also the only place where APC still has a significant base, at 22 percent.

The Northeast is not apathetic so much as split three ways: ADC leads with 23.1 percent, followed by APC at 17.3 percent and NDC at 13.5 percent, with 16.4 percent undecided. That makes two regions the pivot. In the Southwest, the question is whether a Yoruba electorate will defend its president or defect.

Even in Tinubu’s home zone, Obi’s net favourability of +28.9 beats Tinubu’s +15.1. In the Northeast, the question is who consolidates the opposition. If Atiku and Kwankwaso remain on separate platforms, SBM notes, they risk splitting the Northern vote and handing the region to NDC by default.

What Nigerians say matters most also split along regional lines. Insecurity dominates in the Northwest at 74.5 percent, Southwest at 71.3 percent and Southeast at 67.0 percent. The South-South uniquely links economy and insecurity together at 68.6 percent. The Northcentral and Northeast show more balanced profiles.

Across every zone, at least 60 percent say the country is moving the wrong way. The figure tops 88 percent in four of six zones. Only in the Southwest and Northeast does it dip below that, to 60.3 percent and 63.5 percent respectively. Even there, only about 1 in 6 say things are going right.

If turnout is the engine of 2027, information is the terrain. Social media is now the primary news source in every zone. The Southeast leads at 79 percent. But it also leads in another metric: 42.7 percent of respondents there say they never verify what they see online. That matters because alarm about AI-generated misinformation is already high. 64.9percent of all respondents said they are concerned about deepfakes before any major campaign has begun. The worry peaks among middle-aged voters: 51.7 percent of 50–59-year-olds are “extremely concerned” and in the South, 60 percent. Younger voters, 18–29, are less worried at 30 percent and less likely to cross-check sources.

SBM calls this a “fragile” information environment. The most motivated voters are also the least likely to verify.

SBM lists five takeaways for strategists, stating that Tinubu faces a re-election path with almost no conventional route: low approval, low “right direction” numbers, and poor policy ratings everywhere except the Northwest.

His best-case scenario, the report says, is a fragmented opposition and suppressed turnout.

The report stated that Obi has turned 2023 momentum into a durable national lead that cuts across age, gender and five of six zones. His challenge is converting favourability into actual votes in a system where turnout varies sharply.

SBM asserts that the North is competitive, as according to the report, Northern respondents split 44.3 percent NDC, 30.5 percent ADC.

The report states that the Southwest is the swing region, defined by indecision and low turnout intent.

It maintained that the information space will shape the outcome as much as rallies do.

The survey, conducted face-to-face in the third week of May 2026, comprised 438 men, 376 women and 15 who preferred not to say. 37.3 percent had university degrees.

SBM says the findings reflect stated sentiment among the 829 participants, not a projection adjusted to INEC or NPC figures.

For now, the data points to one conclusion: Nigeria is not voting as one bloc in 2027. It is voting as regions, with different levels of anger, different priorities, and different levels of trust in what they see online.

Whoever wins will have to do three things: turn out the Southeast, South-South and North Central; win over the undecided in the Southwest; and convince a public already worried about fake videos that what they are being shown is real.

As one respondent in the South-South put it during fieldwork, “We are tired. But we will come out if we believe it will change something.” Whether enough Nigerians believe that in 2027 is what the next 18 months will decide.

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